The Vikings opened up as 3 point favorites, which has been bet up to 4½ (obviously, someone really likes the Vikings). What are your thoughts on this game and the point spread? Personally, I think Dallas wins at Minnesota. Even if they lose, I don't think it'll be by more than 4.
I say Dallas wins in a tight one. I have it 21-20 after a Minnesota missed Field Goal to end the game. Here was my prediction in my NFL Predictions Notebook.
TEAMS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FINAL
DAL 3 6 0 12 21
MIN 7 3 7 3 20
Dallas kicks a Field Goal on the First Drive 3-0 Dallas. In the middle of the Quarter, Minnesota gets a Touchdown 7-3 Minnesota. After exchanging punts the Quarter ends that way. Dallas gets back to-back Field Goals so it will be 9-7 Dallas. But before the end of the Half Minnesota gets a Field Goal to lead 10-9 at Halftime. The third is a boring quarter until the end when Minnesota gets a Touchdown to lead 17-9. Halfway through the fourth, Dallas gets a Touchdown and goes for two to try and tie it, but fail 17-15 Minnesota. On Minnesota's next possesion they get a Field Goal to lead 20-15. Dallas once again gets a Touchdown on their next drive and go for two to try and make it a 3 point ballgame but fail again. 21-20 Dallas. Minnesota gets the ball back for a two minut drill. They drive to Dallas' 31 and go for a 48 yard attempt to win the game. It goes wide right and Dallas wins it 21-20.
It's a shame that Dallas keeps going for those 2-point conversions. If they just would kick the PATs, they'd be up 23-20. Some coaches abuse the ability to go for two.
You said that Dallas went for 2 twice and missed it twice. If they would have just kicked the two extra points instead of going for 2, they'd be up 23-20, which is much more favorable than 21-20.
I always believe that you go for one unless you're down by a multiple of 8, greater than 8 (23-7 or 31-7) OR you believe that it'll be the last time you have the ball in regulation. Lots of coaches mess up by going for two.
I'm telling you, you wouldnt be a successful coach yet. I am the other extreme. If I am down 14-6 before halftime and I get a Touchdown, I would go for two. If I had a team like the '79 Steelers, '92 Cowboys, '67 Packers I would go for two often. If we have scored two touchdowns, and my kicker missed both PATs I would go for two. Not only because my kicker is struggling but because I need to give us back the points we should have.
You make the two and you tie it up and no way that they will be dominant. And if you've only allowed 14 points in 1 half chances are your defense can stop them in the 3rd Quarter.
