I have Tampa Bay winning at Atlanta this year. I have them losing at home to the Falcons, because they will be home in their first game off a three-game road trip, which usually proves to be disastrous for teams in that situation.
The Bucs do own the Falcons. Tampa Bay's defense can be beaten by a powerful running game, where the running back also has speed. (See Stephen Davis and Deuce McAllister). That is something the Falcons do not have, so Vick is often running from Simeon Rice and Greg Spires.